Oil’s Uneasy Balance: What Tendering Teams Need to Prove in 2025
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OPINION
In a fragile market, tenders aren’t won by the lowest cost—but by the teams that turn volatility into confidence
★ Article by Arno Saffran, Friday 01 August, 2025Every oil and gas executive knows the headlines by now: prices are softening, inventories are climbing, and supply keeps pressing higher. But the question for oilfield services (OFS) companies is not just where prices sit today. It is: how do you convince an operator that your team can deliver predictably in a market defined by volatility?
Where the market stands (August 2025)
Prices under pressure. Brent is averaging $67–68/bbl this year — its weakest stretch since 2021. Analysts warn that with OPEC+ output rising and U.S. production hitting record highs, the market could slide toward oversupply by early 2026.
Supply glut risks. Inventories are building again, with non-OECD storage rising fastest. OPEC+ has lifted quotas by ~0.4 million b/d per month, even as demand forecasts flatten.
Demand growth slowing. Global consumption is expected to expand by just 0.7–0.8 million b/d in 2025, well below the boom years. Weakness in OECD markets is being masked only by modest growth in India and parts of the Middle East.
U.S. shale resilience. U.S. production is pushing a record 13.6 million b/d, a number that looked unthinkable a decade ago. Rig counts are down slightly, but efficiency gains are sustaining volumes.
The net result: operators face declining prices and rising supply risk. Margins are thinner, project economics are more fragile, and capital discipline is back on the agenda.
What this means for OFS bids
Against this backdrop, operators evaluating bids will be asking different questions than they did just a year or two ago:
Can you absorb volatility?
Pricing models need to show how contractors will handle swings in day rates, logistics costs, and currency. A bid that looks watertight at $70 oil may unravel at $60. Operators want to see explicit stress-testing built into commercial proposals.How will you manage supply interfaces?
With ten or more suppliers typically tied to a single well, integration is not a buzzword — it is the risk frontier. OFS firms that can demonstrate mastery of multi-party orchestration, with digital transparency into procurement and logistics, will score higher.Where is the leadership bench?
Technology can optimise drilling. But only the right leaders can keep suppliers aligned, regulators satisfied, and operators confident. In tenders, this means naming the individuals who will front-end execution: country managers who have delivered under pressure, BD leaders who know how to land approvals in high-friction jurisdictions, and project managers who can compress cycle times without cutting corners.
The overlooked differentiator: people
Operators know that barrels will still get lifted, whatever the market price. What they prize is reliability in an uncertain environment. That reliability comes not from software alone, but from leaders who can navigate politics, procurement, and local content laws while holding multi-billion-dollar projects on track.
This is where OFS bidders can stand apart: by demonstrating not just what kit they bring, but who will get the deal across the line.
Final thought
In my earlier career working with operators and engineering firms, I saw the same pattern repeatedly: the companies that win contracts are not always the ones with the cheapest rigs or the shiniest digital twin. They are the ones who convince the operator that their leaders can anticipate problems and deliver solutions under pressure.
With oil prices fragile, supply rising, and inventories swelling, 2025 will be the year tenders are won less on inputs, more on credibility. OFS companies should remember: the market rewards those who can turn uncertainty into confidence — and confidence comes from people.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)
Arno Saffran - VSG. With a background in industrial strategy, advocacy, and business development at McKinsey and in government consultancy, he connects extractive companies to operatives whose in-country networks open market entry, joint ventures, local content, and pre-tender positioning.
