ExxonMobil's Gambit in Gabon
Gabon's former president Omar Bongo (left) and his son, Gabon's current President Ali Bongo (right). © RTK Graphica
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OPINION
ExxonMobil’s agreement with Gabon’s new government is less about oil than it is a strategic gamble on the nation’s political reformation
★ Article by Arno Saffran, Tue 28 Oct, 2025Test of Political Alignment Over Geology
The recent memorandum of understanding between ExxonMobil and Gabon’s transitional government appears as a standard deepwater exploration play. In reality, it is a strategic maneuver contingent less on geological promise than on navigating a political reset.
A Frontier in Play
Gabon’s production has fallen to approximately 200,000 barrels per day, a fraction of its historical peak. This decline drives the urgent need to open deepwater and ultra-deepwater prospects, potentially extending the West African "pre-salt" play. For service firms, this creates a dual market: high-cost frontier exploration alongside technical work to extend the life of aging legacy fields.
New Political Calculus
The 2023 coup that ended the Bongo dynasty’s 55-year rule dismantled the established patronage networks. The new military-led Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CTRI) publicly honors existing contracts while pursuing aggressive anti-corruption probes within the national oil company. This creates a reset—erasing old gatekeepers but introducing volatility. The government’s primary incentive is now legitimization through economic results and transparent governance, not personal enrichment.
Critical Shift for Commercial Strategy
In this environment, success is no longer primarily a function of technical proposal or cost. It is a function of alignment. Commercial partners must demonstrate verifiable value to a new, still-forming administration that operates under intense scrutiny. Relationships must be built with the Ministry of Petroleum, Energy, and Hydrocarbons and the Gabon Oil Company (GOC) on a basis of transparency and local value creation, as defined by the new regime’s public priorities.
The ExxonMobil MoU is therefore a test case. Its ultimate success will be determined by whether the company’ commercial engagement can adapt to this recalibrated political landscape, where the rules of access have been formally rewritten.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)
— Arno Saffran
Arno developed his approach through roles in client development (KPMG) and strategic commercial engagement (affiliated with advisories including Hakluyt), focusing on complex industrial and energy sectors.
VSG works across the extractive value chain, positioning people who form the critical bridge to early-stage relationships and commercial access in complex markets.
